I've been following the situation in Georgia and it is breathtaking how Mr. Putin has managed to take on old 1930's play, scratch out Czechoslovakia, pencil in Georgia and restage it with a perfectly straight face.. Russia has managed to split Georgia in two within five days and it's "withdrawl" leaves it in occupation of a fifth of the country. Worse, it has made it entirely clear to the Georgians that they can take the whole lot over any time they feel like it.Unfortunately, it's one of those situations where there's a whole lot of nothing we can do about it. Russia may have the long-term prospects of an old turnip in a compost heap, but today it enjoys an imperial Indian summer with its petrodollars and nuclear arsenal giving it a large degree of immunity against Western sanctions. In the case of Georgia, simple geography prevents any meaningful intervention and it looks as though Mr. Putin is going to have a free hand to do as he wills.
Or at least, it did until the Americans came up with an elegant little countering move. According to the BBC, President Bush has announced that the United States is sending humanitarian aid to Georgia–using military aircraft and ships to do the delivering. They may not be able to do any fighting, but a flotilla of ships in the Black Sea and troops on the ground in the path of Putin's tanks makes for a nice little trip wire that even a former KGB chief would think twice about stepping on.
Now if only the rest of Nato would send similar "aid" plus a couple of "goodwill" visits by a fighter wing and we'd be laughing.
13 comments:
Putin must have decided that the next President of the United States would either know him for the KGB man he is and hate him, or be a limp-wristed metrosexual cypher with commie sympathies. Either way, nothing Putin does now will change this. The slightly surprising thing is that President Bush still has enough powder in his powder-keg this late in his time in office to look Putin in his reptilian eyes and see who blinks.
I once read a translation of something by Aristophanes that had a Spartan character speak like a Texan. Serious translation, not one of those "re-imaginings" that moves the action up by a few centuries, just because. Maybe it's not such a bad thing for a President to be a cowboy-from-Texas type.
Go on, start WW 3. I am a 17-year old who needs some physical activity and a boost in self confidence, and I am open to new experiences, so I'd like to participate. Just one more thing: I'm a Serbo-Croat. Which side am I on ?
The problem is that these new wars are a bit too fast-paced. You run out of a trench wanting to make a heroic charge, and BOOOOOM, get blown to pieces by a Tomahawk.
Bravo, Vanya! Spoken like a true seventeen-year-old. From the perspective of a few more years, I notice that men who make it back from wars tend to be changed by the experience. I doubt that either of us wants to be on the front lines. That said, while it is unlikely that I will be asked to fight in a major war, I should still be good to volunteer (for the US, naturally) if the war is sufficiently apocalyptic, and maybe we'll meet in person then.
Putin wants direct control of the old territory of the Soviet Union, and a strong influence in the rest of the world. It is in the interest of the US and its allies that this not happen. Either the disagreement will be resolved by the diplomats, or we'll have a look at how our respective arsenals stack up against each other. Russia had the better numbers in 1905, you will recall, so don't get too cocky. I think you've got it right about the Tomahawk, though: a lot of a modern war is going to be fought by the computers, and the first soldiers on the ground will know that they're in trouble will be when they cease to exist. Shitty way to die.
Thanks for the reply!
My serbian grandfather (in no way a chetnik) was a tankist in Yugoslavia in '58 and he told me all those stories about how a T-34 was a simple and ingenious piece of machinery and how the Iljushin-2 had extraordinary terrain-following abilities, so I must admit I have developed a slight fetish for russian equipment.
That shouldn't be a problem since you can find Kalashnjikovs and Katjushas in every second household in the Balkans today, and they are free to grab when needed.
And one more thing: do You know those russian soldier hats from the 1920s that have a pointed top, are made from dark green fabric and had a red star in the front ? I think they were called Budjonovka. It would be super-awesome if I could get one and put a symbol of mine on the front ! Then I would be ready to take an AK-47 and fight for whichever side my president gets killed by.
Yep, I'm as 17 as can be. Can't wait to sing Svjaschenaja voina and deflect projectiles with my young balkanese goatkeeper's fists.
P.S.
I get the message. War is not nice. I was just daydreaming about what to do with my life if I flunk at my gymnasium in Zagreb.
Hm, for some strange reason I thought you were writing from the point of view of Russia rather than the Balkans. Whatever else one says (and a lot can and has been said), those Serbs are tough SOBs. Speaking of old hardware, if anyone could be expected to face a Panzer armed only with a pistol, back in the day, it would be a Serb. I wonder if one of Putin's goals in invading an American ally wasn't showing that Russia is no longer the drunk toothless bear it was in '99, under Yeltsin.
Anyway, with NATO's expansion into eastern Europe and Putin's expansion into the Caucasus, we seem to be looking at a return, if not to the exact Cold War lines, then to the old situation. Whatever our individual loyalties are, I would suggest praying that the war remains cold.
I'm pretty sure that is Putin's primary goal.
And I didn't mean to make any political references by saying that I would sing Svjaschenaja voina. I like the tune of the song, and I don't know what the lyrics say, I just know that they contain:
Destroy fascism = good
spread stalinism = bad
As I said, I like the tune.
I tried to stay politically neutral, which is hard when I mention russian equipment and a piece of headgear.
Since my parents come from Serbia and Croatia, I consider myself primary a Yugoslav national, and remember that Yugoslavia broke up with Stalin (at a time when no one else dared to oppose him) and went to the unaligned movement.
As a balkanese, I have always had a special connection with russians (and that includes You and your family), but not with their motives!
Those two things can sometimes be hard to distinguish, especially if I mix them up even further.
I went a little too far with the Budjonovka (which I still think looks cool and no one can change my opinion) and the song Svjaschenaja voina (whose aggressive melody helped boost my morale during the hardest days of school).
I'm a russophile.
Well, Russian(USSRian)-Jewish family, now in America both physically and in our loyalties. Last contact we had with the Red Army was one of my grandfathers, who visited Berlin (in 1945), along with a bunch of compatriots, as well as Americans and Brits. He remembered the armies celebrating together to his dying day. If this thing blows up, or another one arises and goes badly, you and I are likely to see it from different sides. Let us hope that this doesn't happen.
By the way, I doubt that you need fear flunking out of gymnasium, if your excellent English is any indication.
I certainly hope it doesn't grow into a larger conflict. Predicting which side will I end up now seems very hard and complex. I don't think it is important since I probably wouldn't have the luxury to choose if war came to me.
My age has to be considered. What did you think when you were 17 ?
I have a theory that people from a big powerful dictatorship develop a more peaceful way of thinking because of all the crap they have to endure.
Actually, when I think calmly, unless if Croatia is invaded it would almost certainly enter the war with the EU. Our government is very pro-European. So unless if I convert to Orthodox Christianity and escape to Serbia I don't really see myself helping restore old soviet borders.
You don't have to answer this if I'm getting obnoxious. I'm excited about the subject of conversation so I am writing two posts at a time.
Well, on the off-chance that you're still reading, I immigrated to the US when I was quite young. At age seventeen, my attitudes were still those of my parents---wonder at how much more freedom the citizens of this place enjoyed than the subjects of that one. Later I saw that my new country is not perfect, but at the same time realized that neither is the world, and that this is far from the worst place in it. Practically speaking, I signed up with the Selective Service system (information for drafting into the military, if necessary) when I hit the right age, and would have served if it were required of me. No idea what my loyalties would have looked like in a place as fragmented as the Balkans. And that's pretty much my story: stories about the bad old days in the USSR at close second hand, and a bit of annoyance when the fashionably -istic start "what if"ing about the same old Marxist hobby-horses, because I know where that leads.
Anyway, this thing is pretty far down in the web page, and I see that Mr. Szondy has favored us with pictures of some sort of car whose design process involved a big old handful of peyote. Let's poke fingers at it and laugh while Comrade Putin bellows about bombing Poland; that will either blow over, or it will involve us all soon enough.
You're right.
It was very interesting and valuable to hear a story from someone who emigrated from the USSR. I am very interested in history (as a sort of hobby, not a future profession) and I would dare to say that I know a lot more than my peers, especially about WW2.
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