Friday 17 December 2010

Ghost cities

All built up and nobody home
Is this, as some pundits claim, Red China's century?  Are we living in the time when we see the Celestials inherit the Earth and the West fades to become one with Nineveh and Tyre?  Amazingly, every generation going back to Marco Polo manages to convince itself of exactly that and every time it turns out to be dead wrong. 

The Chinese economy is booming, but people forget that the other side of boom is bust and that China is ruled by those lovable Communists who never saw a nation that they couldn't run into the ground.  One symptom of what's to come are China's ghost cities; 64 million brand new homes scattered across the Empire without a soul living in them thanks to a insane property bubble.  And that's just the tip of the fortune cookie that's about to crumble

My advice:  Stand well clear.  Implosions tend to suck in bystanders.

2 comments:

eon said...

It looks like Brasilia to me.

Or an Olympic village the day after closing ceremonies.

Either way, the old men in the Forbidden City are about to find out the truth of Clancy's Law;

"Socialism always fails because you cannot force people to pay more for something than it is actually worth."

And Thatcher's Law, as well;

"The trouble with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other peoples' money."

When the crash comes, it will be large, and probably loud. Unlike Japan's collapsing bubble, China's will be in a country that is large, non-homogeneous, and has been held together for centuries by government-wielded force. Only the rationale' for the force changes over time. When it falls down, I look for it to blow up. (Think Yugoslavia, on a mega scale- with nukes.)

/just food for thought.

cheers

eon

Anonymous said...

So the Dinocrat blog has been predicting a China bust for a long time too, and mentioning the ghost cities. But recently I saw somewhere somebody mentioned about how China will be instituting a more rigid internal passport system, which will allow the pressure built up in the poor rural areas to slowly bleed off, as the rural population which longs to move to the big city and live the good life, will be migrated into the ghost cities. I wonder if it will work; but at least it gives some rhyme and reason to the building of the ghost cities.