Copenhagen roulette

Over at the New York Times, John Tierney tells climate "sceptics" to put their money where their mouth is and sign on to a carbon tax system where the rate is linked to temperature. If the "sceptics" are right, the rate goes down (actually, it doesn't go up as fast) and if the worshipers of Blessed Gaia are right, the rate goes up (a lot more).

Leaving aside the injustice of such a tax existing at all, I'll take up Mr Tierney's offer, but with a couple of slight modifications. Since Climategate, the Warmenist position is back to square one. Where I would contend that what we are seeing is natural variation until proven otherwise, the worshipers of Blessed Gaia claim something very specific: That computer models have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that

• The Earth is undergoing an unprecedented episode of heating
• That this is due entirely to increases in manmade carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
• That if this heating is left unchecked, it will result in catastrophic changes in the climate
• That the only way to do prevent this, with no possible alternatives, is to curtail manmade carbon dioxide emissions through a very specific political programme of global control, artificial shortages, punitive taxes, wealth redistribution, and an overwhelmingly powerful bureaucracy answerable only to an unelected elite
• And that the only authority to question this is through peer reviewed science controlled by warmenist advocates who decide what is peer reviewed.

That being said, the onus of this wager must surely be on those who advocate such a draconian regime, not those who oppose it. So, here is my alternative. First, instead of basing it on equatorial temperatures, it will be global mean temperatures because that is all that matters. Needless to say, this will be determined by means that I regard as reliable, not the likes of the CRU and their ilk. Second, the payoffs will be as follows:

• If the rise in temperature matches the accepted global warming model (there isn't one, by the way), then the carbon tax for that year will be paid in full.
• If the temperature does not change, then the tax will be refunded.
• If the temperature drops, the tax will be refunded ten fold.
• If the temperature rises, but not according to what the model predicts (whether falling short or exceeding it), then the tax will be refunded one hundred fold.
• All refunds will come solely from funds from past carbon tax collections. No other sources are allowed, nor can collected funds be spent for a period of ten years. If the refunded amounts ever exceeds those collected, the tax will be repealed.

Money where your mouth is, old boy. I mean, the science is settled. Isn't it?

Update: What causes climate scepticism? According to Richard Black: Men.

Update: Meanwhile, that red-blooded hero George Monbiot finds his mind crushed.

Update: From Russia with fraud.